Wedbush's Michael Pachter stunned by 14 percent dip in software revenue; Pacific Crest's Evan Wilson calls September the best chance for industry growth through Q1 2011.

Earlier this week, analysts Michael Pachter and Evan Wilson were split with their expectations for the game industry's August sales figures. Wedbush's Pachter projected that US retail software sales would be down a mild 3 percent, with Pacific Crest's Wilson predicting a more drastic 18 percent decline. The industry-tracking NPD Group released its August sales data yesterday, with a 14 percent software drop more in keeping with Wilson's grim assessment.

Mafia II didn't blow up at retail quite the way Take-Two had hoped.

The two analysts reacted to the numbers in separate investors' notes this morning, with Pachter saying the results were "in a word, shocking." Pachter blamed the numbers on poor sales of Wii and DS games and slow starts for Mafia II and Kane and Lynch 2, the latter of which had a performance he dubbed "incredibly weak" after it failed to make the top 10 chart. Wilson focused on tough comparisons to the release slate of August 2009, saying Mafia II sold fewer than half as many copies as Batman: Arkham Asylum, and there was nothing to replace the sales Wii Sports Resort put up in its first full month on shelves.

The gaming hardware market was also gloomy, with Wilson noting that the Wii sold fewer systems last month than at any point since its launch. Pachter put the blame on the portable market, noting that PSP and DS system sales were down a combined 39 percent year-over-year.

"We believe that the iPod Touch is beginning to cannibalize dedicated game handheld hardware sales, and expect weakness in handheld hardware to persist until the introduction of the Nintendo 3DS, likely early next year," Pachter told investors.

Much like they did with their August predictions, Pachter and Wilson are taking opposing views as to whether the industry's glass is half full or half empty for the coming months.

"We believe September will mark the beginning of a sustainable rebound in software sales, as the game lineup in October (Medal of Honor, Fallout New Vegas, and Fable 3) and November (Call of Duty: Black Ops) is strong," Pachter said.

While Wilson acknowledged that Halo: Reach, the launch of the PlayStation Move, and DSi price cuts could push September sales into positive territory, he was less sure of the "sustainable" tag.

"September is the best opportunity for growth since May, and going forward including the holiday season and Q1 2011," Wilson said.

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Team Ninja's take on Samus finishes third in debut week, behind Capcom's latest PSP Monster Hunter and Wii Party; Modern Warfare 2 budget release cracks top 10.

In a Game Developers Conference session earlier this year, Metroid creator Yoshio Sakamoto said his sci-fi adventure series was seen as a niche title in Japan. Be that as it may, the latest franchise iteration for the Wii finished a respectable third place on Media Create's Japanese sales charts for its debut week.

"I'll show you 'niche.'"

The Team Ninja-developed Metroid: Other M moved 45,398 copies for the week, outsold only by the latest entry in Capcom's phenomenally successful (in Japan) Monster Hunter series and Nintendo's latest minigame collection for the phenomenally successful (everywhere) Wii. In its second week of release, MonHun Nikki topped the chart with 88,405 copies sold. Wii Party was a distant second with 55,837 copies sold.

Beyond Metroid, the only other new release to crack the top 20 was the Sony-published PSP fighter Bleach: Heat the Soul 7 in fifth place with 25,374 sold. Technically, Activision's 2009 blockbuster Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 could be considered a new release on the charts, as the bargain-priced rerelease of the game sold 9,162 copies in its first week on shelves, good enough for ninth place.

There were few notable trends in hardware sales for the week, with most consoles and handhelds roughly flat with the previous week's performance. The most notable exception to that would be PSP sales, which saw a dramatic uptick for the week of MonHun Nikki's launch and dropped about 37 percent week-over-week to a more reasonable 34,839 systems sold. Even with the drop, the PSP remained the best-selling system of the week.

JAPAN GAME SALES WEEK OF AUGUST 30 - SEPTEMBER 5, 2010
Software:
Rank / Title / Publisher / Platform / Unit sales
1. MonHun Nikki: Poka Poka Ailu Mura / Capcom / PSP / 88,405
2. Wii Party / Nintendo / Wii / 55,837
3. Metroid: Other M / Nintendo / Wii / 45,398
4. Ace Combat: Joint Assault / Namco Bandai / PSP / 27,560
5. Bleach: Heat the Soul 7 / Sony / PSP / 25,374
6. Super Mario Galaxy 2 / Nintendo / Wii / 11,933
7. Art Academy / Nintendo / DS / 10,248
8. Inazuma Eleven 3: Sekai e no Chousen!! Spark and Bomber/ Level Five / DS / 10,022
9. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (Bargain Edition) / Square Enix (Japanese publisher) / PS3 / 9,162
10. Another Century's Episode R / Namco Bandai / PS3 / 8,880
11. Tomodachi Collection / Nintendo / DS / 8,052
12. Wii Fit Plus / Nintendo /Wii / 7,902
13. Monster Hunter Freedom Unite / Capcom / PSP / 7,783
14. Sengoku Basara: Samurai Heroes / Capcom / Wii / 7,342
15. Dragon Quest Monsters: Battle Road Victory / Square Enix / Wii / 6,468
16. Taiko no Tatsujin DS: Dororon! Youkai Daikessen!! / Namco Bandai / DS / 6,359
17. Sengoku Basara: Samurai Heroes / Capcom / PS3 / 6,010
18. Mario Kart Wii / Nintendo / Wii / 5,858
19. Hatsune Miku: Project Diva 2nd / Sega / PSP / 5,676 20. Hakuouki: Zuisouroku Portable / Idea Factory / PSP / 5,518

Hardware:
PSP - 34,839
PS3 - 22,227
DSi LL - 18,929
DSi - 16,968
Wii - 16,080
DS Lite - 4,039
Xbox 360 - 2,860
PS2 - 1,370
PSP Go - 927

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